The visible hand in economics

iPredict and prediction markets

Posted on: July 21, 2008

Just been looking at the blog of the iPredict internet venture (site here, blog here). It looks like interesting stuff, and is definitely a good way of illustrating the “wisdom of crowds”.

One thing that did excite me was a “recession contract” (blog post here, contract details here). If it turns out that we have had a recession over the first half of the year then each share pays out $1 – otherwise it pays out zero.

As a result, you lose if March is revised up, and/or if the June quarter experiences real growth. While it seems quite likely that we have had a recession, the current contract price is $0.8661, which sort of implies that the market is pricing in a 86.61% chance of a recession. This appears to be a touch high – given that none of the partial indicators are actually out yet.

However, with petrol prices up 7% over the quarter, indications the drought will have reduced agricultural volumes further, and the fact that inventories in many industries were at high levels in March (and the market is working with production, not expenditure, GDP) I suppose betting that there was a recession is fairly safe money 🙂

The main risk in my mind isn’t that the June number will be negative, but that March might be revised up into positive territory! You just can’t trust those danged seasonally adjusted numbers 😉


1 Response to "iPredict and prediction markets"

Hard drive for this console is 320GB and is quite frankly more than enough for anything
that you think you can do with an Xbox, be it downloading
content, such as movies, music or browsing the net (let’s not
forget about gaming. When you’re accomplished using the questionnaire, click on the “check out – Inch alternative to assert the particular offer. One just needs to buy the Free Microsoft Points cards from Microsoft and then get the code and enter it and get folks Free Microsoft Points in one’s account.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Add to Google
%d bloggers like this: