Posted by: Matt Nolan on: February 7, 2008
At Kiwiblog there is mention of Don Brash stating that we should think about allowing the Reserve Bank to increase and reduce the petrol tax. This is something that the Reserve Bank has actually suggested itself (at the same time they suggested a floating GST rate).
As far as I can tell they want to do it as during a boom asset prices drive consumption, so if you tax petrol you introduce a negative income effect which lowers consumption – opposite for a recession. This works because demand for petrol is inelastic (as there are few substitutes for driving your car), and as a result the amount a person spends on fuel will increase with the price – leaving them less to spend on other stuff. This will reduce demand-pull inflation, and allows the RBNZ to keep a fund of money that they can inject into the economy when a recession is threatening. A benefit is the fact that the administration costs of the tax are low, as the institutions are already in place.
Problems are:
1. Efficiency in the goods market, if the relative price was socially efficient (say that the neutral rate involved the efficient Pigovian tax), increasing it is not.
2. Petrol is an input to production, as a result increasing the price will create cost/push inflation
3. As poor people spend a greater proportion of their income of petrol, an increase in petrol taxes will be regressive during a boom. Furthermore, low income labour are only paid their reservation wage, if an increase in petrol taxes increases their reservation wage it will lead to further cost/push inflation.
4. In legislative terms, allowing the RBNZ to adjust a tax is dodgy (no tax without representation).
So what does everyone else think?
Menu costs? I have no idea how much it costs to change gas taxes or the GST by a cent, but I bet it’s greater than epsilon.
The regressiveness is at the margin of course, no realistic level of petrol tax is going to change the fact that the NZ tax system is progressive overall.
Don’t people argue that regular monetary policy is regressive anyhow since poor people have relatively more debt and less income earning assets? Although Matt’s rebuttal applies to that argument too.
Not that I support the petrol tax idea.
Forgive me for trolling, but is that the fact that its the status quo really the best argument for the fairness of a progressive tax? I could make fairness arguments for flat or poll taxes. I think what you mean to say is that most people accept that the rich should pay more for social services, but even a regressive tax (in rates) accomplishes that goal.
How would you guys reconcile support for progressive taxes with the blog’s general support for things to be taxed/subsidised to reflect their true cost to society? It would seem that the direct result of all progressive tax systems is that social services are underpriced relative to their cost to society. And high value labour is overtaxed relative to its value to society.
Don’t disagree with anything you said Matt, but my question is really: why is a progressive income tax the best method for reconciling the efficiency and equity goals?
Depending on your definitions, I suppose you could call any tax and spending system that achieves redistribution in final allocations “progressive”, but I don’t see it as obvious that a steadily progressive income tax rate necessarily maximizes either objective.
To answer my own question, I’d be happy with much more user-pays (efficiency), flat marginal income tax rate (or even better consumption tax for consumption/savings neutrality), and redistribution through either general lump sum or targeted cash transfers. Although our existing system is fairly good by global standards, I think the system I’ve described is much sounder from a theoretical point of view. I love the idea of a flat tax rate from a public choice point of view (no more fiscal drag to finance spending!).
Can I also make the point that economists tend to prefer revealed preferences as opposed to stated preferences, and I’m not certain that these suggest that people are as wild about redistribution as they claim to be. I’m thinking of the relatively low levels of charitable contributions.
Ha, i wrote that revealed preferences thing before I read your last comments.
Still not quite happy with your explanation rauparaha. Saying that representative democracies prefer a certain tax system for redistribution seems analogous to saying that representative democracies prefer extensive trade restrictions to raise welfare. Is it surprising that the median voter in democracies prefers a tax system that sends money their way?
I think most voters probably do have misconceptions over the cost of taxation (and I doubt the errors cancel). Politicians talk about how much programmes cost in dollar terms, not in terms of the dead-weight loss from the taxation. Likewise the public doesn’t tend to appreciate that in-kind transfers are worth less than their dollar cost. Either failure would lead you to demand too much in the way of goverment transfers and spending.
I’m not going to argue that people don’t in general have a preference for transfers to themselves, or from someone else. But all the election results tell us is that progressive tax schemes (probably) maximize social welfare for 51% of the voting population. I don’t see what bearing that result has on the question of what kind of tax system maximizes societal welfare in total. In fact, I’m going to go further and claim that the fact that progressive rate systems are so universal in democracies, despite there being very little (as far as I’m aware) theoretical or empirical evidence to suggest their efficiency, suggests that these systems’ popularity has much more to do with their electoral success than their objective merits.
I suspect that if you took a sample of economists from around the world and asked them to design an ideal tax systems from scratch, a very small proportion of the results would look much like the existing tax systems of their country. And I don’ t think that normative preferences would be the key driver of the divergence between existing and ideal.
The idea of a petrol levy was one we were kicking around in 2006. We were looking at why the RBNZ had been looking at cutting interest rates, then raising interest rates as the year progressed. I commentedabout the RBNZ’s flop flop here :http://kiwitrader.blogspot.com/2007/03/how-reserve-bank-should-manage-monetary.html
One of my first comments on my new blog!
Anyway we realised that fuel prices rose steeply and the RBNZ was reacting to that move. They were more comfortable about inflation being contained as prices rose, as it was taking cash out of peoples pockets. Then as the oil prices fell in the second half of the year, their rhetoric switched as they began to be worried that there was more cash available due to lower petrol prices.
So we figured cut out the interest rate reaction and comment and simply give the RBNZ the power to set the price of fuel over the market price set by the oil companies. The RBNZ “margin” would speed and slow the economy directly and the funds would flow to the RBNZ using the current tax collection system.
In times of recession, the RBNZ could subsidise the fuel price to help things along, and vice versa.
This would not replace the OCR, but would be a more direct lever and not one that people could easily protect against, (apart from big corporates, who hedge fuel anyway) as they can with fixed mortgage interest rates.
And the bonus was that the currency would not be impacted, thus not driving the carry trade and hurting exporter revenues.
Anway, I had lunch with Don last year, and pitched it to him and he liked it!
Much better for him to run with it publically as he is so much better known and I prefer to remain anonymous.
The point is, we never looked at it as a tax, but merely another monetary policy tool, whose affects over time would be neutral. When monetary policy tightening, RBNZ margin increases, when easing RBNZ margin decreases, to zero, or in a recession, goes negative.
At the time, we were looking for an instrument other than interest rates, and this seemed to fit the bill!!
Matt, to address your points: I meant efficiency in satisfying the social welfare function. I also didn’t say anywhere I would “only pay a small amount out of kindness”. In theory, if not in practice, progressive taxes shouldn’t be based on a social concept of equity but the belief that progressive taxes are the most efficient means of achieving equity goals. I doubt you have any evidence for “lower crime, more robust social institutions”, you’re being platitudinous.
To make my point a different way, what if we greatly increased social spending through much higher taxes, but made the tax system regressive (e.g. a 40% tax rate but 0% marginal rate after 200k). Such a system could achieve much greater equity than NZ’s current system despite being regressive. So why would this be unfair, and why, a priori, would it be less efficient that the same amount of spending funded with a progressive tax?
To tie this back to the original discussion, you get the objection that a policy is regressive quite often, but is it really much of an argument? All government spending is going to have some effect on income distribution (often ambiguous, depending on what kind of inequality you have in mind, and who you think benefits). But it’s not an accepted fact that the status quo in NZ is the perfect level of progressivity. If we have no idea of whether more or less progressive is desirable from an social welfare standpoint, then criticizing a policy for being regressive is solely a normative statement.
My dictatorship would better, naturally.
You’ve read Bryan Caplan, don’t democracies “collaberate” all the wrong information?
Caplan’s point is not about the efficiency of a democracy, but that voters have systematically biased beliefs that results in inefficient policy outcomes.
Believe it or not, I’m not taking some kind of wingnut stand on this one. The economic literature really is quite uncertain about the optimal income tax structure. To quote the intro of one of the first search results for those terms on google:
The analysis of nonlinear income taxation pioneered by Mirrlees (1971) has
characterized a number of properties that the optimal tax must possess (see e.g. Myles (1995) for a survey of these). The theoretical results though do not answer all the questions that are raised about income taxation. The most hotly-debated practical issue is the behavior of the marginal rate of tax, in particular whether the optimal income tax should be progressive – a property that the tax systems of all developed countries possess. The theory has so far not fully resolved this question. It is well- known that the marginal tax rate should be zero for the highest skill consumer, so the tax function cannot be progressive everywhere. But this end-point results provides no information on the behavior of the tax schedule on the interior of the skill distribution.1 This is a significant gap in our knowledge.
I just read this which is also relevant:
The comparative experience thus suggests that for inequality reduction, it is the quantity of taxes rather than the progressivity of the tax system that matters most.
Via Mark Thoma.
[...] Taxes and inflation (tax cuts and interest rates), (GST and inflation), (petrol tax). [...]
1 | Taxes
February 7, 2008 at 9:00 am
[...] H-Dog wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptAt Kiwiblog there is mention of Don Brash stating that we should think about allowing the Reserve Bank to increase and reduce the petrol tax. This is something that the Reserve Bank has actually suggested itself (at the same time they … [...]